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13/12/2006
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The Pisa Forum: world travel trends report
Europe set to achieve another year of sustained growth
"Europe is well on its way to achieving yet another year of positive growth," Tom Ylkänen, Vice Chairman of the European Travel Commission's (ETC's) Market Intelligence Group, told delegates at last month's Pisa Forum. "Performance to date has been boosted by a whole host of events that have taken place in Europe this year, from the Winter Olympic Games in Turin, to the FIFA World Football Cup in Germany, the Ryder Cup in Ireland, and numerous events linked to famous artists and musicians – such as the 400th anniversary of Rembrandt's birth, Mozart's 250th and Picasso's 125th." The 14th annual World Travel Monitor Forum, sponsored by ITB Berlin, was organised by IPK International in co-operation with the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the European Travel Commission (ETC), the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and the Travel Industry Association of America (TIA). The 50 or so participants comprised chief executives and heads of marketing and/or research from national tourism organisations, research institutes, industry associations and the private sector from around 30 countries in Europe, the Americas, Asia Pacific and Africa. The continuing expansion and spread of low-cost airlines across the region has also stimulated demand, the Pisa Forum delegates pointed out, in many cases at the expense of destinations such as Cyprus and Malta, which have not benefited from low-cost airline services until now. (Ryanair now of course operates to Malta.) The estimated 3-4% growth in international tourist arrivals, which represents more than 10 million additional visitors over the full 12 months of the year, will have been achieved despite a large number of challenges that were expected to have a negative impact on tourism demand – from renewed terrorist attacks to outbreaks of avian flu, flooding in various parts of Europe, and the rising price of oil that has pushed up airfares through higher surcharges and taxes. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the Europe-wide average for inbound tourist arrivals masks some fairly wide variations from one sub-region to another. The huge pent-up demand for Central & Eastern Europe over the past few years, for example, now seems to have largely bottomed out, although some countries in the region are continuing to perform well, eg Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania. Northern Europe, excluding the Baltic States, has been the strongest performer (+6.0%) in Europe, with Finland, Ireland and the UK leading the growth for the sub-region. Other destinations achieving growth rates well above average are Germany – thanks largely to its hosting of the FIFA World Cup – the Netherlands and Switzerland. Although Southern/Mediterranean Europe recorded a healthy 4.6% increase in arrivals through the first eight months of the year, there has been a marked shift from the eastern shores, notably Turkey, to tried and tested destinations in the western Mediterranean, such as Spain and Italy. This is of course attributed, at least in part, to increased political tension and violence as a result of the Israel-Lebanon crisis, although Turkey has also had its own share of terrorist attacks and threats. One piece of very welcome news for Europe this year is that the US market has recovered – although some destinations have benefited far more than others – and Japan is also showing signs of a rebound, at least to Italy and Germany, with emerging destinations Slovakia and Slovenia attracting massive growth out of Japan from a low base. Emerging markets such as Russia, India and China are well on the way to fulfilling their promise, and Europe can certainly look forward to steady growth from most other parts of Asia and leading markets in Latin America over the short to medium term. The vast majority of international arrivals in Europe are, nonetheless, intra-regional and, as shown by the results of IPK International's European Travel Monitor from January through August 2006, short trips of one to three nights in length rose by 10% as against zero growth for longer trips of four-plus nights – again, attributable to increased demand for low-cost/no-frills flights. Total overnight volume by European outbound travellers, which reached 3.5 billion in 2005, increased by a modest 1% in the first eight months of 2006 – half the rate of trip volume. But expenditure, meanwhile, was up 3%. "It is important to note that several of Europe's leading source markets are mature ones," said Rolf Freitag, President and founder of IPK International and the European and World Travel Monitors, at the Pisa Forum. "Since they are fast reaching a ceiling in terms of overall foreign travel intensity, any growth from these markets is due more to increases in trip frequency than to rising numbers of the population choosing to travel abroad." A full analysis of the opportunities and threats identified by the Pisa Forum participants, as well as detailed information on trends in different regions of the world, is available in the ITB/IPK World Travel Trends report, which can be downloaded from the websites of either ITB or IPK International.
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(Fonte de informação: Messe Berlin)
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